With the three gubernatorial debates now in the rear-view mirror, nothing has changed. We are gonna have a blowout, ladies and gentlemen, on Nov. 4.
After the polls close at 8 p.m., it will take Associated Press and/or one of the television networks about a minute, maybe less, to declare that Tom Wolf will be the next governor of Pennsylvania.
While there are multiple reasons why Tom Corbett will become the first incumbent governor to seek re-election and fail since the state constitution was changed in 1968 to allow governors to serve two four-year terms, this is the most significant: Many Republicans can’t stand the guy.
Corbett was elected attorney general twice but his lack of people skills have doomed his administration and his candidacy. Corbett never figured out how to accomplish much of anything despite having Republican majorities in the Senate and House for his entire four years as governor.
Former Republican Sen. Robert Jubelirer addressed Corbett’s multiple failings on Pennsylvania Cable Network following the third and final debate Wednesday.
Jubelirer said Corbett has not listened to his suggestions and implied that Corbett has given current Senate and House leaders the cold shoulder as well. In fact, Jubelirer handed most of the credit for passage of the transportation bill, the major accomplishment of Corbett’s tenure, to Transportation Secretary Barry Schoch, saying that Schoch was the guy who was able to secure the votes necessary for passage.
Among other criticisms, Jubelirer said Corbett didn’t understand that he needed to focus on just one or two key items in the months immediately following his election and not take a scatter-sh0t approach.
As weird as it might sound, Jubelirer also suggested that Wolf might have the skills to do a better job of working with Republican Senate and House leaders than Corbett has done. Most analysts expect Republicans to maintain control of the Senate and House, although the margin in the Senate might be thin.
It’s no secret that Corbett and his staff alienated Republican senators and House members soon after he took office. During the 2008 campaign, media covering Corbett complained about how Corbett’s aides were arrogant and controlling to the point of paranoia. Those kind of attitudes carried over into the administration and alienated the people Corbett needed to please in order to succeed.
Another point Jubelirer made: Corbett is still disliked/despised by the many in Happy Valley as a result of the Sandusky investigation. A Republican trying to win a statewide election without the votes of Penn State alumni is a high hurdle, one Corbett won’t clear.
While education funding, Marcellus Shale taxation and pension reform remain the major issues in the campaign, it doesn’t help Corbett that he’s swimming against the tide on social issues like medical marijuana and gay marriage.
Add it all together and, barring a colossal blunder on the part of Wolf, this election is looking like a Wolf landslide, maybe 60-40 percent.
Follow along on Twitter @sesnyderleb.